A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
